Will AI decrease demand and salaries?

[u/Proud-Confidence7290]

Hello everyone.

I am new to web development and it goes well so far.

I'm bit scared of AI development. Let's say you needed 10 developers for a project before ChatGPT and now you need 8.

With the development of AI, we will need even less.

Why do people think AI won't decrease demand and salaries of web developers? It's logic for me, what am I missing?

[u/[deleted]]

I don’t think that is a good comparison and shows a clear lack of understanding of what autopilot is and why we have pilots.

Autopilot doesn’t think or do much reaction, sensors to detect a mountain miles away are a major cost, pilots are cheaper. If something goes wrong a pilot is cheaper, if there is congestion a pilot can adapt out the box. Pilots do much of the landing, as auto pilot is most hover termination.

Then we have laws, heath and safety which require pilots, good luck trying to change that anytime soon…

Then there are physiological issues, would you get onto a plane that had zero pilots? Who’s to blame if there is an issue?

There are far too many outside powers stopping the change to require 2 pilots. You could get away with one but we have 2 for the sake of one passing out or becoming sick/incapacitated, it’s a cheap backup.

I get your point, but this is an awful analogy to compare WebDev with something as critical and law dependent as flying a plane.

[u/captain_ahabb → u/[deleted]]

I'm quite aware of what autopilot is

[u/[deleted] → u/captain_ahabb]

Then you wouldn't have made this comparison because Auto Pilot has absolutely nothing to do with why we have pilots and wouldn't ever be a reason to not have pilots. The same principles do not apply to web dev which is not critical and not heavily governed.

So maybe you just momentarily forgot.

[u/captain_ahabb → u/[deleted]]

You're so close to understanding my original point. Autopilot didn't replace pilots because there's more to being a pilot than just giving inputs to the control surfaces. Generative LLMs won't replace SWEs because there's more to being a SWE than just writing code.

[u/[deleted] → u/captain_ahabb]

I get your point, I literally said that

Quoting my post

I get your point

But that isn't even close to the correct comparison. The reason for Pilots is strict laws, health and safety and socialcConcerns, it's the same reason we can't have true self driving for now and laws are being introduced to prevent it.

SWE just does not have this, there's no governing body, health risks or social concerns over Bob the builders Wordpress Site to sell Firewood and Type 2.

I get your point, but the analogy doesn't fit because the reasons why pilot exist are absolutely not the same reasons why SWE need to exist.

A pilot will be needed 100% of the time. a SWE might be needed 10% of the time. So the capacity, the demand and the salaries will be affected.

The closest thing is "blame game", PM's love a human to "shout at/blame" when things go wrong. So maybe that's close?

I just don't think this is truthfully applicable.

In 30 years when AI can do everything Software Dev, I reckon we'll still require pilots.

Anyway, I appreciate your post here.

[u/longebane → u/[deleted]]

lol. So basically your replies were just one big, “WeLL AckchyuallY”

[u/[deleted] → u/longebane]

No? Are you 13?

It was "this doesn't fit the comparison" because the reasons for pilots are not and never will be the same for SWE.

The grown ups are discussing here mate. So cringe.

[u/captain_ahabb → u/[deleted]]

Does it matter if the reasons why we need human supervision of air flight and the reasons why we need human supervision of software development are different? My point was merely that automated systems still require human oversight.

[u/[deleted] → u/captain_ahabb]

Yes it absolutely matters because it affects everything, including the 2 things the OP mentioned: "decrease demand and salaries"

That is exactly why the reasons matter.

Like your whole point is kind of obsolete from the fact that machines took over a lot of manual labor jobs, because those jobs are not critical and only laws and social expectations can salvage that, but unlike flight it wont be 100%.

[u/captain_ahabb → u/[deleted]]

You're splitting hairs about the second-order reasons though. The first-order reason (the need for human supervision) is the same in both cases, and thus the analogy works. The presence of the need for supervision is the same even if the reasons for that human supervision being needed are not.

Really feel like you're arguing for the sake of arguing here.

[u/[deleted] → u/captain_ahabb]

Completely disagree and you’re not answering what the OP was asking about. The OP is worried about demand and salaries and your comparison doesn’t work for what the OP is worried about, not even the slightest.

No the need for human supervision for SWE and pilots is not the same, one is a legal requirement, the other is not, that’s as simple and as factual as it gets.

If AI was perfect today at writing code, it would replace humans in a heartbeat, but it won’t replace pilots in the same way an electrician won’t be replaced.

This conversation is pointless, your comparison isn’t good, it doesn’t fit the OPs worry and it has completely different reasoning and context.

Bye