Nobody seems to be talking about this one.

Cascade Investment, Bill Gates’ personal investment fund, has been buying Republic Services ($RSG), the second-biggest garbage and recycling company in the US.

Here’s what the filings show:

• $1.58B bought over the past year

• About $200M in May

• Then $1.38B in only 5 weeks, from Aug 10 to Sep 11

• 30 separate buying days, with the biggest day at $91M

• They now hold about 117M shares

And here’s how it’s going:

• RSG is up 17% since Aug 10

• It’s at a 52-week high right now

• Nvidia is down 26% over the same days

To be fair, Gates’ fund has been RSG’s biggest shareholder for years, so this isn’t a brand-new bet. What stands out is the speed: over a billion dollars in about a month.

Crunched through - insiderprint.com/ticker/RSG

Old, but gold.

Seems that all his female reports topped him off at least once. Why are we assuming she didn’t?

We all know the rotation trade has been on and off all throughout the year and it started again in October. Consumer defensives are now reaching biblical valuations across the board.

WMT is priced at 47x earnings (33% above the 5 year average) and the company has a YoY growth rate of 5.3%, compared to other sectors in this market, this is through the ceiling valuations.

WMT has dropped on all 3 earnings this year, 1.38% Feb, 7.27% in May and 9.5% in Aug, despite beating EPS on all 3 instances.

Earnings call is Thursday before the open, if they do not show an insane beat on growth rate it only makes sense to correct.

Technicals: there was a large gap in June that has recently been filled. Currently 9% above 200 daily MA.

Positions
25x Dec 18 $130P
25x Dec 4 $125P opening Monday

Price Target: $116

I used to work as a professional trader at a top-tier hedge fund. Thought I’d share something I picked up along the way that might actually be useful to some of youuui.

It’s one of those things that isn’t exactly a secret, but unless you’ve worked in the industry, chances are you’ve never thought to look at it.

And no, I’m not selling a course or asking anyone to join a Discord lol.

Anyway, here’s something interesting.

Singapore is a tiny country, but it plays a pretty important role in the global semiconductor and electronics supply chain.

A lot of people watch Nvidia, AMD, the Nasdaq, Fed announcements, etc. Nothing wrong with that.

But here’s something you might not know.

Every month, Singapore publishes a report called Non-Oil Domestic Exports (NODX).

Sounds boring as hell, I know.

But there’s a particular section worth paying attention to: electronics exports.

Basically, Singapore exports a lot of electronics and semiconductor-related products to the rest of the world.

When global demand for chips and electronics starts picking up, you can sometimes see it showing up in Singapore’s export numbers.

And when demand starts weakening, those numbers can give you an early clue too.

Now here’s the part I find interesting.

By the time you hear about slowing demand on CNBC or see disappointing earnings from a major tech company, the market may have already priced in a lot of that information.

That’s why professional traders don’t just look at stock prices. They also look at what’s happening underneath the economy.

So how can you actually use this?

It’s pretty simple.

Google “Singapore NODX electronics exports”.

You’ll find the monthly reports published by Enterprise Singapore. They’re free.

Look at the electronics export numbers and compare them over several months.

If growth keeps accelerating, that could be a sign that global tech demand is improving.

If growth keeps slowing, it might be worth asking whether the tech cycle is starting to weaken.

One thing I’d suggest is looking at the trend over three months rather than getting excited about a single number. These reports can be pretty noisy.

You can also cross-check the numbers against Singapore’s electronics manufacturing output and PMI new export orders.

When multiple indicators start telling the same story, that’s usually more interesting than one number moving on its own.

Now, obviously, this isn’t some magical indicator that tells you when to buy or sell Nvidia.

If it were that easy, we’d all be retired on a beach somewhere.

Markets are complicated, and sometimes stocks move in the opposite direction of economic data.

But it’s another piece of the puzzle.

And that’s really how a lot of professional investing works. You gather information from different places and try to understand what’s happening before it becomes obvious.

The funny thing is, all this data is publicly available.

You don’t need a Bloomberg terminal or a six-figure trading setup.

You just need to know where to look.

Anyway, thought I’d share. I don’t post much about my trading background, but if people find this interesting, I’ve got a few more obscure indicators and market quirks I could write about.

Hopefully someone here finds it useful.

And please don’t go YOLO your life savings into semiconductor stocks because of one Singapore export report.

Cheers.

It could go negative and it still wouldn’t matter at this time.

Fight me.

I've invested into SPCX as well as many other space companies partially because I expected this. But I'm worried I'm going to wait to long and watch any winnings from a rally slip through my hands. My gut tells me that there will probably be a strong but short lived rally followed by a quick drop as everyone cashed in. Especially for any sympathy rallying on any of the other space companies I own. So I'm thinking if theres a big rally, I'll probably sell it all by the end of the trading day on Monday. But what if I'm missing something, and the significance is enough that it's a much longer rally and I miss out? Or honestly, it could be even shorter, with people selling off by the middle of the day since it happened on the weekend and a lot of the surge will probably be the opening price from all the orders placed. Maybe I should sell most of it but then hold on to some just in case? So what do y'all think?

Who wants to take the lead and request a record date after confirming 15% of us will support it.

Return of Jensen to the NVDA is the end game.

Over the past few days I saw a ton of misinformation being spread, both on social media and even on major tech sites, about how the fact that Chinese AI labs have been able to access the export controlled Nvidia GPUs like the Blackwell series.

And people have been saying that all of Nvidia's Singapore revenue were in fact illegally acquired China revenue.

But what people don't understand is that under the current export control law, it's perfectly legal for foreign data centers to rent usage of even export-controlled GPUs to Chinese companies. Yes it's a major loophole that the Congress will most likely close soon, but until then, it was perfectly legal for Singaporean/Malaysian companies to buy billions of Nvidia GPU for the exclusive purpose of renting them to Chinese tech companies.

And Megaspeed was one of such companies. They have actually built large data centers in Malaysia and yes, their customers are almost exclusively Chinese. Again, it's perfectly legal.

So this whole "now Nvidia will lose 20% of their revenue because their Singaporean

So dumb articles like this TechCrunch hit piece really means jack shit, and is all just part of the concerted effort to smear Jensen in this whole orchestrated campaign to oust him.

Note: I'm not even defending Jensen here. It's clear he couldn't keep his pants on and the biggest reason this whole campaign to get rid of him worked is himself. However facts are facts so people need to understand the actual law before accusing anyone of breaking them.

What can we possibly expect with earnings coming up?

Earnings have to be really good, I’m talking 800% expectations. Specially with these “revelations” that the money has been just doing circles this whole time. And even then we need guidance.

And what guidance can we expect when we are getting a new CEO 30 seconds before earnings.

I just don’t see any reason for it to go up.

If we have good earnings then too bad, Jensen was the reason and now we don’t even have him.

So what’s the argument for calls?

Everyone wants exposure to space.
Nobody wants to talk about what happens when SpaceX starts crushing launch costs. Who benefits, who gets squeezed, and who’s ridiculously overvalued?

I gave you guys the SpaceX IPO 400 bagger (check previous posts) and this is my DD for the Anthropic IPO. The biggest market event of the year is happening on Thursday when Anthropic goes public. Many people expect the IPO to fail, but Anthropic was smart and kept the float super small. Only 6.3% of total shares will be tradable on IPO day. That means all it takes is a bunch of media attention and dumb retail buyers hitting market orders to make it easily go up 50% in a day. SpaceX did the same exact strategy with the low float, and we saw it go up 70% in the first few trading days. I’m not saying this gain will last, it won’t, but this is going to be a short-term trade.

We all know a possible 50% gain with shares is boring, which is why we buy options. But Anthropic will NOT have options on IPO day. However, there’s a fund called $DXYZ (Destiny Tech100) that holds Anthropic as their biggest position and has options. They also own SpaceX and OpenAI, among other AI stocks.

$DXYZ first gained attention earlier this year when it had SpaceX shares before the SpaceX IPO. The stock went from $29 to $72 in just a few days in anticipation of the SpaceX IPO. Their Anthropic position is currently their biggest holding, more than SpaceX, and I expect the run-up to the Anthropic IPO to start Monday.

If you search $DXYZ on Robinhood, you’ll see it says “$34.30 - NAV” (under the price in gray font). That means all of its cash and holdings combined is worth $34.30 (last time it was calculated on June 30th). If you are wondering why it’s trading below that right now, it’s mostly because of the recent AI scare and drama. Especially last week, with everyone freaking out about Jensen getting fired from Nvidia. However I actually think this is a GREAT thing for Anthropic. It’s money coming out of Nvidia and possibly going into them as they get mass media attention next week.

Positions - Lots of $DXYZ shares, Nov 20th $25 Calls, Nov 20th $30 Calls and Nov 20th $32 Calls. If anyone is asking about how the 200x gain is possible, if it hits the high it hit in May, the OTM Nov 20th Calls would be a 200x - 220x gain.

We’ve seen this stock move crazy before, going from $29 to $72 in just days. I believe Monday will be the start of the pre-IPO run as media attention starts going away from Nvidia and focuses on Anthropic. Even the CEO of $DXYZ bought $1.77 Million Dollars of shares at $31.56 (more than it is right now) in September.

MSCI to officially remove MSTR from its indexes by the end of this month.

Singaporean government disputes claims made by WSJ. The Nvidia war really heats up.

This subreddit is now filled with saying nvidia its financials are about to collapse because demand & pricing power will fall off a cliff etc. Are all of you sitting on all cash?

If nvidia margins & demand truly collapse, everything that smells like a chip stock will collapse with it. Nvidia still makes the best chips in the world, their prices determine whateveryone else can charge. Margins will go back for everyone if nvidia loses.

After, if nvidia collapses everything that smells like AI but isn't printing money yet will collapse because it will cast fundamental doubts on which companies can make it to become profitable. You think people will suddenly be willing to wait to see how margins will improve after chip costs decrease? No, everyone would panic and assume AI is losing interest as an investment case, smart money is getting out and those who have not made it yet will collapse.

Finally, other tech stocks would be stuck in a world where the current thesis would be AI makes everything a lot more complex, but without many gains. All stocks will be punished for this but especially tech, since tech has historically been priced for consistent major growth in sales & profits.

Tl;dr regards are forgetting AI is carrying pretty much the whole stock market now and Nvidia is carrying AI. If the Nvidia growth story stops, everything will collapse.

My previous post here.. https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/s/3WQBrD6GQn

Currently down another 10% over the weekend.. Its taken 10 years to build my account now being destroyed by Coinbase