r/startups • u/kshmrmusiczhu3 • 8h ago
I will not promote We replayed two years of our own ad spend. The weeks we should have cut were visible two weeks in (i will not promote)
We've shipped 15+ apps and run ads for them on Meta, TikTok, Google and Apple. For a long time we judged campaigns in the ad dashboards, and it never quite matched the money that came in. So this autumn we went back through two years of our own data, week by week, and made a keep-or-stop call on each week of spend using only what we knew two weeks in. Then we checked what that spend actually paid back.
The weeks we flagged made back 55 cents for every dollar within 90 days. The rest made back $1.51. That was 27 weeks flagged against 36 kept, and the flagged weeks old enough to check at a year still hadn't paid back.
The number that told them apart was new paying customers above the app's normal level, valued at what they actually paid, with each week compared to how earlier weeks looked at the same age. Two weeks in, that comparison already showed which weeks were going nowhere.
You can try it on your own numbers in a spreadsheet. Find your normal level of new paying customers from weeks with no ads. For each week of spend, count the customers above that level, and track what that week's new customers pay by day 14, 30 and 90 next to earlier weeks at the same age.
If you buy ads, how do you decide a week of spend was a mistake? A fixed rule, or gut feel?