Link to tweet:

https://x.com/tupacabra/status/2121357879341166683

Created by person named tupacabra

https://github.com/muellerberndt/cadence

https://cadence.floatingpragma.ai/

It's been 72 days since the release of GPT-6 Astra, a model that a few of OpenAI execs like President Brockman Heralded as the start of the "AGI Era."

Just 19 days later, Anthropic released Opus 5.5, which has arguably run laps around GPT-6 Astra ever since. Curiously, Anthropic execs stated Opus 5.5 is not AGI, yet most coders broadly agree that it's a much stronger model than GPT-6 Astra.

OpenAI responded with GPT-6.1 Sol, which did virtually nothing to reclaim the crown. Its planned GPT-6.1 Astra release was then canceled, reportedly because of "serious alignment and deceptive-behavior concerns."

Meanwhile, Anthropic has released yet an even stronger model in Fable/Mythos 5.2. The only serious competitive heat has arguably come from Google DeepMind through models like Gemini 4 Carbon.

Here's what I suspect:

OpenAI is sitting on a model significantly more powerful than Opus 5.5, perhaps even Fable 5.2, waiting to drop it right before or right after Anthropic's IPO.

Anthropic is expected to price its IPO on November 18 and begin trading November 19.

I imagine OpenAI will drop their next frontier model on either Tuesday November 17 or Thursday November 19.

If they do not release anything next week, it would mean OpenAI is falling behind because they are not yet able to fix their alignment issues with their models. If they do release, it would mean they were preparing the most strategically timed model release.

Anthropic also has stronger models in the pipeline (Fable 5.5), but, I seriously doubt they would release Fable 5.5 just one week after Fable 5.2.

Talking to Claude is frustrating because it tends to nag/refuse anything it considers to be even slightly "unethical".