I’ve been working as a developer for over 10 years, and one thing I’ve realised is that the average person isn’t nearly as competent as we like to believe. The number of genuinely bad developers I’ve worked with over the years is honestly astounding. People with years of experience who can barely solve a problem without following a tutorial or copying what someone else did.
And I don’t think this is limited to software development.
Humans are pretty good at learning repetitive tasks, getting comfortable with them and doing the same thing for years. That’s basically how a huge part of our workforce operates. Unfortunately, that’s also exactly the kind of work AI is getting ridiculously good at replacing.
Now add declining birth rates to the equation. Fewer young people entering the workforce, an ageing population and companies potentially struggling even more to find skilled workers. Why would businesses keep relying on humans when AI and robotics could eventually do the same jobs faster, cheaper and without most of the headaches?
And I think software development itself is going to change far more radically than people expect.
We have programming languages, frameworks, design patterns, architectural principles and all these abstractions because humans need them. We need structure to understand what we’re building, maintain it and collaborate with other developers.
But does an AI really need all of that?
If AI eventually becomes capable of building, testing, debugging and maintaining entire systems on its own, why would it need to follow the same conventions we’ve created for ourselves?
Look at the recent PHP memory-related vulnerabilities that needed patching, with AI reportedly playing a role in uncovering them. Think about how many vulnerabilities might still be sitting in codebases that have been maintained and reviewed by humans for decades.
Now imagine AI becoming significantly better at analysing entire systems, understanding memory management and finding security flaws that thousands of developers have overlooked.
I wouldn’t be surprised if we eventually reach a point where AI starts questioning the foundations of how we build software in the first place.
Why keep relying on layers of frameworks, abstractions and human-friendly programming languages if AI can eventually generate, optimise and validate machine-level instructions directly?
Maybe assembly or even binary-level generation will make more sense someday. Not because lower-level code is automatically safer, but because the limitations that made high-level languages necessary for humans might not apply in the same way to AI.
Sounds ridiculous today, but so did the idea of AI writing entire applications a few years ago.
We’re already moving towards a world where developers increasingly rely on AI-generated code, sometimes without even properly reviewing what it produces. And I’m seeing this happen more and more. Imagine what happens when AI becomes significantly better than the people who are supposed to review its work.
I genuinely believe the average worker is far more replaceable than most people are willing to admit.
And here’s the uncomfortable part: companies don’t need AI to be perfect. They just need it to be good enough, reliable enough and cheaper than hiring someone.
We’re constantly talking about how AI needs human supervision, how it makes mistakes and how it can’t replace real expertise. Fair enough. But we’re comparing today’s AI with today’s workforce. What happens when AI keeps improving while the average human doesn’t?
I think we’re much closer to that reality than people realise.
Curious what others think, especially developers who’ve been in the industry for a while. Are we overestimating AI, or are we massively overestimating ourselves?