A bundle of climate reports give bad news, the hottest November night in North America, eco-paralysis, canceled flights, drone war, and telecommunications problems.
Last Week in Collapse: November 8-14, 2026
This is Last Week in Collapse, a weekly newsletter compiling some of the most important, timely, soul-crushing, ironic, amazing, or otherwise must-see/can’t-look-away moments in Collapse.
This is the 255th weekly newsletter. The November 1-7, 2026 edition is available here if you missed it last week. The unabridged newsletters are also available (with images) every Sunday in your email inbox by signing up to the Substack version.
In Memoriam: The Schwarzmilzferner Glacier, the last remaining glacier on the Allgäu Alps between Austria and Germany, has melted and vanished completely. Glaciologists expect all the eastern Alps to become ice-free by 2070 at the latest.
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Have our annual emissions truly peaked? The Global Carbon Project projects that 2026 may finish with 0.4% fewer emissions than 2025. They estimate approximately 38.2 Gt (gigatonnes) in 2026 compared to 38.4 gigatonnes in 2025. The reason? China’s rapid adoption of green tech, plus energy disruptions from the Iran War, and the growing market share of EVs are combining to lower our carbon footprint—just a little bit. But some metrics (like land use change) indicate an increase in carbon emissions. This is not the first time overall emissions may decline; there was a brief period in the 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, and late 2000s where emissions temporarily dipped downwards—and for COVID in 2020. So don’t get your hopes up. The full preprint study was published in Nature on Tuesday.
“Global fossil fuel CO2 emissions have grown 0.8% per year on average between 2019 and 2025. Here we project a decrease of 0.4% in 2026, probably as a short-term response to the energy shock triggered by the Iran conflict….59 countries emitted less in 2025 than before the COVID-19 pandemic in 2019, while their economies grew, 51% more than during 2004–2010….The 2026 decrease is driven by 1.9% and 0.3% decreases in emissions from oil and gas, respectively, which are partly offset by a 0.6% increase in emissions from coal….AI-driven expansion of data centres plays only a minor role in the growing demand in 2025….energy transition drivers are not yet strong enough to overcome the anticipated emissions from demand growth….decreasing emissions could occur already from 2026, but this would require an unlikely combination of low GDP growth, low CO2 intensity of GDP, accelerated clean technology deployment and the high range of assumptions used in this calculation….The remaining carbon budget (the amount of CO2 that can be emitted before warming reaches 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels) is now 150 billion tonnes – equivalent to less than four years of emissions at the current rate…” -selections
Scientists are worried that the Amazon rainforest is degenerating and losing its capacity to store carbon, and it’s being transformed into a source of carbon, thanks to wildfires, deforestation, and Drought. A Nature study from last month examined 15 years of the Amazon’s carbon (im)balance, and unsurprisingly concludes that warmer and drier years result in larger carbon emissions from the Amazon. “The 15-year annual mean Amazonia carbon balance was 0.32 ± 0.08 PgC yr−1.” The lead author says, “Deforestation means the death of the forest in two different ways. The first is the direct destruction that everyone counts. The second, which almost nobody counts, is the impact on the climate caused by the loss of the forest itself. Every tree is a rain factory. It helps produce rainfall and keeps temperatures down. When we destroy the forest, we are not just losing trees. We are changing the climate that the remaining trees need to survive….I have serious concerns about this green economy because there is so much greenwashing involved. People are destroying forests to establish monocultures of something that is supposed to be green.”
Recent data indicate that October 2026 was the moistest month on record, and 2.3% moister than the previous moistest month on record. Last weekend, Benin and Tanzania felt their hottest November day on record (at 39.5 °C and 37.6 °C respectively), while Mauritius and Oman felt their warmest November night on record; Qatar too. Flooding in Iran killed four. A wave of warmth across much of Central Asia set new minimum temperatures for the month. A month-by-month look at the year’s extreme weather analyzes many of the monthly temperature records smashed, plus disasters that unfolded in each month.
Laos felt its hottest November day on record; Vietnam set a new record warm November night at 29.1 °C (84 °F). And Palau felt its all-time warmest night at 28.3 °C (83 °F). When part of Mexico’s Chiapas state felt a 29.0 °C night (84 °F) last week, it also set a new record for the warmest November night in all of Mexico—and in North America! Sea surface temperatures early last week were 7.5 °C warmer than usual off the California coast. As a combination of El Nino and the king tides (and general sea level rise), California’s sea level hit record highs, measured at 7 NOAA tide gauges.
El Niño is being blamed for Indonesia’s gargantuan wildfire loss—28,700 sq km so far in 2026. That’s an area about 10% larger than Sicily. Experts say that El Niño is not peaking yet; expect this to occur in December or January, probably around the New Year. So there is more damage to be wrought, including to the global economy & supply of food. Prevention measures against El Niño are estimated at $36B worldwide, and the damage from not acting was clocked at around $73B. One UN official remarked, “It would be an extraordinary failure to see this crisis coming, to hear the predictions from the experts, and yet still squander the opportunity to protect people in its path.”
As COPe31 began last week, Türkiye announced that they have discovered two new oilfields, containing some 135 million barrels in total. Two days later, Türkiye’s President said, ”every minute we fail to meet the targets in the Paris agreement, the risks and costs we face continue to grow.” The President of the Marshall Islands proclaimed at the conference, “it’s time to wake up….or the world we know is over.” There is no U.S. delegation at COP31 this year. Over 85 private jets came to Antalya, Türkiye in the weekend launching the conference. The primary agenda item is increasing total global electricity production in an attempt to wean off of oil & gas; but the fossil fuels inherent in the production of EVs and other green tech is apparently not being considered seriously. Famed activist Greta Thunberg said that earth “is being killed and we know by who…It is being killed by the very same people thought to come to our rescue.”
The WMO released an update to its State of the Climate 2026 report in time to impact the COPout31 conference. The 25-page document has a number of key takeaways, though some of the data end in 2025. Atmospheric CO2 is at about 429 ppm, earth’s energy imbalance is at record highs, the oceans are continuing to warm to historic highs, both poles have seen record low sea ice maxima in the last 12 months, and the “global mean near-surface temperature anomaly averaged from January to September 2026 (1.47 °C ± 0.13 °C above the 1850–1900 average).” The first ten days of November have also set record temperature anomalies for November.
“2026 is on track to be one of the four warmest years on record globally….Ocean heat content in the upper 2000 m of the ocean in 2025 was the highest in the observed record, exceeding the 2024 value by 19 ± 11 zettajoules (ZJ). Preliminary data to July 2026 indicate that ocean heat content has continued to rise….the total amount of heat accumulating in the Earth system is rising and at a growing rate….The 2026 El Niño, intersecting with underlying vulnerabilities like already high food insecurity levels and heavy reliance on rainfed agriculture in some parts of the world, is already increasing risks for agriculture in key seasons and production systems….Earth’s glaciers lost more than 400 gigatons in 2025, equivalent to approximately 1 mm of sea-level rise….all 19 glacierized regions around the world experienced mass loss….Water stored on land – in groundwater, soil, rivers, reservoirs, glaciers and snow – has declined globally since 2014….” -selections
The EU’s Copernicus Climate Programme released a report on Wednesday, the State of Wildfires 2025–2026. Among other things, it confirmed that Canada’s wildfire emissions are 3x of what they were 25 years ago, and stated that Iberia’s wildfires were made 3x more likely by climate change.
“During the March 2025–February 2026 fire season, global burned area (BA) was 18 % below the 2002–2024 average….we are witnessing extreme wildfires occurring on every inhabited continent. While global total burned area (BA) is decreasing, both BA and fire emissions are rising in extratropical carbon-rich forests and peatlands….As human population and urban area expand, we also see increasing extreme fire effects at the wildland-urban interface….wildfires are becoming an emerging risk in the Arctic and subarctic, with Canada experiencing three years of unprecedented wildfire emissions over 2023–2025….at least 3.29 million km2 burned globally during the 2025–2026 global fire season (March 2025–February 2026), 18 % below the average of previous fire seasons since 2002….India recorded its third-highest BA season since 2002….South Korea recorded its highest BA season since 2002….Myanmar's 2025–2026 BA was 33 % above the 2002–2024 average….The United Kingdom recorded its highest national BA season since 2002….” -excerpts from the State of Wildfires 2025–2026
A grueling cross-section of the Hajj pilgrimage paints a picture of an increasingly deadly risk of heatstroke testing the faithful. A preprint study in npj Ocean Sustainability concluded, perhaps counterintuitively, that there are legal impediments in satellite monitoring of marine areas, and in using satellite imagery as a conclusive evidentiary standard. Monitoring of these areas is particularly important for scanning for industrial fishing vessels.
Storm Charles lashed Iberia, canceling several hundred flights, flooding areas from Portugal to France, and making serious rainfall in the Alps as well. British Columbia meanwhile suffered under powerful storms through much of the week; flood warnings are still in effect in some places.
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An interesting sociological study in the journal Climate examines “eco-paralysis,” “climate contempt,” and “climate distress” among Americans aged 13-22 in order to find out why they act—or don’t. They found that climate distress (basically the fear of future climate disasters) is a strong motivator behind climate action, but it is also a cause of eco-paralysis. “Climate contempt—generally understood to be a morality-based affectual orientation—is characterized by feelings of hostility or resentment toward the climate crisis….climate contempt is the strongest positive predictor of eco-paralysis and a key negative predictor of willingness to engage in individual and collective action.” Are you among the paralyzed, or the active?
By mid-week, Ebola cases in the DRC passed 11,000+, and almost 5,400 deaths. One UN official in the eastern DRC says that more people are dying from regional battling than from the Ebola strain—but the fighting will result in more Ebola cases as violence obstructs healthcare responses. And last week, annual cholera cases in the DRC hit 60,000; there were about 1,800 deaths, an above-average CFR for the disease. The U.S. recorded its 9th and 10th measles deaths this year; total cases nationwide passed 5,400 for the year.
The looming refinancing of billions of AI debt dollars is threatening to cost big tech companies hundreds of millions, and set back future development of data centers. Will it trigger a bubble pop, or is it manageable? Others think the sex scandal rocking NVIDIA’s CEO might trigger a loss of confidence in the sector; NVIDIA shares fell 13% overnight (an unimaginable $545B USD), but it soon bounced back and recovered half the drop. Anthropic is hoping to launch its historic IPO soon, ahead of forecasts presaging a bubble bursting.
Russia’s ambitions to replace the U.S. dollar with the Chinese Yuan have reportedly been stymied, and Russia may be softly abandoning its experiment. Microsoft suffered a 24-hour outage across its global communications systems from Thursday to Friday—one of their longest outages ever.
It was a week of reports. A 52-page report on global internal displacement estimates that, of almost 30M people displaced by disasters worldwide in 2025, 13.6M of them were still internally displaced by the end of 2025. So 45% of people who become displaced by disasters (mostly flooding, sea level rise, and earthquakes) experience a long, possibly irrecoverable Collapse.
“...the longer people remain displaced, the lower their likelihood of reaching a durable solution and the worse their physical, mental, and economic outcomes become…accumulating disadvantage over months and years of displacement, including elevated posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms persisting five to twelve years after the event….Sea-level rise, coastal erosion, and desertification will increasingly render specific locations physically or economically uninhabitable….” -selections
The U.S. grounded all flights across the country on Friday for several hours, allegedly due to a mechanical error. The situation was resolved but tens of thousands of flights remained delayed or cancelled, complicating days of following flights and travel plans. It is interesting to consider flights as an indicator of Collapse—whether from COVID, War (Ukraine hasn’t had commercial flights in almost 5 years now), the severely limited availability in long emergencies (Haiti, Yemen, Myanmar), and in post-Collapse countries (like Afghanistan, Syria, and Somalia).
As peace talks, and talks for peace talks, stall out between the United States and Iran, top Iranian officials vow that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed until their demands are fulfilled. An LNG tanker allegedly struck a mine on Friday, according to the IRGC.
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The collision of two trains not far from Cairo left 7+ dead, and at least 125 others hurt. A general strike in Spain occurred for the first time since 2012, triggered by the rising cost of living, and rent in particular. The son of Uganda’s strongman President is consolidating his authority over the army in preparation for a potential coup following the death of their 82-year-old President. The President of the DRC enacted a law in preparation of a referendum to enable him to run for a third (and fourth, and fifth) term. The DRC also sentenced 66 of their soldiers to death for “cowardice, mutiny and refusing to obey orders.”
A bus & truck crash in India left 24 dead and 11 others wounded. In the UAE, a truck that lost control ended up causing a chain crash that resulted in 14 people killed. 13+ migrants trying to cross the sea into Greece were found dead off the coast of Crete.
El Salvador’s special military operation into Haiti blasted the HQ of one of the gangs, reportedly killing 20 fighters—but the gang’s leader was not among them. Trump is reportedly intent on doing something in Cuba—probably a special military operation.
President Trump is reportedly considering intensifying military and economic operations against Iran in the wake of the thumping Republicans suffered in the midterm elections. Other voices say the midterm results will force a close to U.S. hostilities—but will Israel and Iran keep the War going regardless of American wishes? Iran claims to have hit a U.S. radar station in Bahrain.
Vicious storms in Gaza killed at least five people last weekend, when cold rains flooded into their tent lodging. 150,000 shelters are still beind held up at customs before they can be provided to the long-suffering Gazans. Israel struck a hospital, killing 6 and wounding 20+ others.
Houthis launched several missiles into Saudi Arabia, targeting Riyadh’s airport, a Red Sea fuel station, and a village near Mecca. This was alleged retaliation for Saudi-backed Yemeni forces inflicting 130+ casualties among the Houthis in previous days. Syria is even sending forces to Saudi Arabia to help Saudi defenses.
In the wee hours of Friday morning, Russia blasted a hospital in Kyiv, wounding several; Starlink/Starshield was temporarily down and could not assist in missile interception. Other Russian strikes wounded several across Ukraine and took out power in part of Kryvyi Rih (pop: 580,000). The fighters are increasingly becoming robot-on-robot warfare; the human is still (for now) in the loop, but he is far away. The U.S. is [preparing a permanent military presence in Poland, to be officially decided next month. NATO is reportedly reorienting its priorities away from scattered crisis responses towards preparing for a War against Russia.
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Select comments/threads from the subreddit last week suggest:
-Eco-paralysis is real, and this self-post from a Spanish teenager confesses some of the crushing climate realities afflicting people today—and collects some community wisdom on getting through eco-anxiety and living a fulfilling life.
-AI sucks, and the subreddit commenters have a variety of reasons why they personally hate AI. Read them in this thread if you like AI bashing.
-Collapse probably won’t look like a sudden Mad Max hellscape (until it does), says this post from a few hours ago. Instead, Collapse is already landing, and it looks like a complex interconnection of slow-moving and rapid problems, climate disasters, human errors, petrocapitalism run amok, and pretty much everything you’ve just finished reading.
Got any feedback, questions, comments, upvotes, reports, doomsurfing, winter predictions, endangered species to mourn, etc.? Last Week in Collapse is also posted on Substack; if you don’t want to check r/collapse every Sunday, you can receive this newsletter sent to an email inbox every weekend. As always, thank you for your support. What did I miss this week?
