r/LockdownSkepticism • • Apr 26 '20

Discussion Covid-19 lockdown supporter here

10 Upvotes

I completely understand why you would want to reopen. The economy is in shambles https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/guid/5AE7CE46-864F-11EA-8DD8-CACFE6E0C2C2 And kids are not getting help in school. However though, deaths have skyrocketed as of late

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Old people and people with underlying health conditions are fearing for their lives.

So, I respectfully disagree with y’all


r/LockdownSkepticism • • Dec 28 '21

Analysis No one promised the vaccines prevent transmission or even infection

3 Upvotes

I've heard it repeated here that the vaccines were touted as "preventing infection" or "stopping the spread." While that might have been true in some media circles, it was never true in terms of what the clinical trials were even testing, nor is it true that the FDA or CDC were saying that all along.

If you believe otherwise, read on; I hope to persuade you. Let's take a look at what the actual clinical trials say.

Phase 3 Trials

Johnson and Johnson

Johnson and Johnson Clinical Trial. Results statement:

In the per-protocol at-risk population, 468 centrally confirmed cases of symptomatic Covid-19 with an onset at least 14 days after administration were observed, of which 464 were moderate to severe–critical (116 cases in the vaccine group vs. 348 in the placebo group), which indicated vaccine efficacy of 66.9% (adjusted 95% confidence interval [CI], 59.0 to 73.4) (Table 2).

Emphasis mine. Further reading in the discussion section of the report:

The effect on the incidence of symptomatic and asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection by the vaccine suggests that it might be useful in reducing community-wide transmission.

"Might be useful" is not a claim that it definitely prevents transmission. Further:

The analysis of vaccine efficacy against asymptomatic infection included all the participants with a newly positive N-immunoassay result at day 71 (i.e., those who had been seronegative or had no result available at day 29 and who were seropositive at day 71). Only 2650 participants had an N-immunoassay result available at day 71, and therefore only a preliminary analysis could be performed.

Moderna

Phase 3 Clinical Trial:

The trial enrolled 30,420 volunteers who were randomly assigned in a 1:1 ratio to receive either vaccine or placebo (15,210 participants in each group). More than 96% of participants received both injections, and 2.2% had evidence (serologic, virologic, or both) of SARS-CoV-2 infection at baseline. Symptomatic Covid-19 illness was confirmed in 185 participants in the placebo group (56.5 per 1000 person-years; 95% confidence interval [CI], 48.7 to 65.3) and in 11 participants in the mRNA-1273 group (3.3 per 1000 person-years; 95% CI, 1.7 to 6.0); vaccine efficacy was 94.1% (95% CI, 89.3 to 96.8%; P<0.001).

...

In addition, although our trial showed that mRNA-1273 reduces the incidence of symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection, the data were not sufficient to assess asymptomatic infection, although our results from a preliminary exploratory analysis suggest that some degree of prevention may be afforded after the first dose. Evaluation of the incidence of asymptomatic or subclinical infection and viral shedding after infection are under way, to assess whether vaccination affects infectiousness.

It's probably worth noting that they're defining SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 as different things. SARS-CoV-2 is the virus; COVID-19 is the disease. By that definition, you could have the virus in your system, but unless you were symptomatic, you didn't have the COVID-19 disease.

The FDA/CDC and WHO were not consistent in that terminology, because China was insisting that the virus itself be called COVID-19 to avoid the word "Asia" in SARS: South Asia Respiratory Syndrome. But anyway.

Pfizer

Again, New England Journal of Medicine Phase 3 Outcome:

Confirmed Covid-19 was defined according to the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) criteria as the presence of at least one of the following symptoms: fever, new or increased cough, new or increased shortness of breath, chills, new or increased muscle pain, new loss of taste or smell, sore throat, diarrhea, or vomiting, combined with a respiratory specimen obtained during the symptomatic period or within 4 days before or after it that was positive for SARS-CoV-2 by nucleic acid amplification–based testing, either at the central laboratory or at a local testing facility (using a protocol-defined acceptable test).

...

These data do not address whether vaccination prevents asymptomatic infection; a serologic end point that can detect a history of infection regardless of whether symptoms were present (SARS-CoV-2 N-binding antibody) will be reported later.

Media and CDC, early 2021

Let's move along to how it was covered in the media and what the CDC said. Early on, they were careful to not insinuate that vaccination prevented infection:

  • January, NPR: "Can I spread the virus to others even if I'm fully vaccinated? This is an important question, but scientists studying the shots' effectiveness don't have an answer yet."

  • February, Smithsonian: "while the two currently approved Covid-19 vaccines from Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna are more than 90 percent effective at preventing the development of serious illness, scientists don’t know whether someone who has been vaccinated can carry the live virus and spread it to others."

Evolving Data

Over time, however, new studies were published and the recommendations changed with them:

  • In February, months after the vaccines were being distributed, the CDC said people who were exposed and vaccinated didn't need to quarantine.

  • By March, Nature published a study suggesting vaccinated people have viral loads low enough to make transmission unlikely. This was based on data from Israel and of people likely infected with either ancestral or alpha strains.

And then as of course you know, the CDC said we didn't need to wear masks anymore because vaccinated people weren't major vectors for transmission.

  • By July, the CDC had a new study suggesting that vaccinated people were indeed spreading the Delta variant.

Why does all this matter?

It matters because truth matters. It's simply not true that the vaccines were promised as tools to prevent transmission. Their clinical trials, which were against the ancestral strain out of Wuhan, were specifically testing for symptomatic infection -- not transmission, not asymptomatic infection, not ending the pandemic.

The CDC has been incredibly lazy with its mask "science," even pushing demonstrably flawed studies to force children to wear masks. We should push back against bad science when we see it.

But as a community, I would say we lose credibility if we suggest things that simply aren't true, such as the claim that Pfizer, Moderna, and Johnson and Johnson claimed their vaccines were sterilizing. They made no such claim, nor did the FDA.

The CDC believed some studies, with good reason, suggesting that with the ancestral and alpha variants, the vaccines reduced transmission greatly. That was also the correct thing to do: they updated their guidance based on evolving science.

We can persuasively argue against heavy-handed draconian regulations and risk-averse government busybodies without misrepresenting what drug companies and the FDA said about the vaccines. It would have been great if the vaccines did prevent transmission. For a while, that hope seemed likely, but it's gone now. All the more reason not to mandate vaccines -- they will not give us herd immunity.


r/LockdownSkepticism • • Feb 15 '22

Discussion Schools are doing fine with masks. Dropping mandates now would be premature

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0 Upvotes

r/LockdownSkepticism • • Jan 15 '21

Meta A new invite-only community for LGBTQ skeptics + allies

4 Upvotes

Hi everybody!

This is certainly niche, but I've created an invite-only sub for LGBTQ and ally skeptics. You can find it here--please PM me if you wish to be invited. I envision it as mainly a discussion/support forum for community-specific issues.

Obviously, the same expectations for civility, tolerance, and just being kind that we have here will be upheld on this forum as well. Thanks and hope to see some of you there.

https://www.reddit.com/r/LGBTQLockdownskeptics/


r/LockdownSkepticism • • May 06 '20

Discussion Saying virus isn't that deadly hurts our anti-lockdown argument

25 Upvotes

I see a lot of people on the anti-lockdown side trying to prove in every way possible that the virus isn't that deadly & I think it's hurting our side. Of course the actual mortality rate isn't 6%, but 72,000 deaths in a little over 2 months is a lot no matter how you look at it. Regardless of the fatality rate, when you combine it with how easily this virus spreads with, even using the lowest rate rate, it is quite deadly. Saying otherwise hurts our side & isn't necessary to support ending lock-down.

We have to open back up. Obviously. But there is a deadly virus & it would be stupid to not take proper precautions just because we're sick of lock-down. With 72,000 dead & counting you're probably not going to convince anyone still wanting lock-down that this virus isn't deadly, but you may be able to persuade someone that ending lock-down is inevitable & our only choice now is work towards ending lock-down in a way that minimizes the lives lost.

TLDR: I agree the actual fatality rate is much lower than the current case to death ratio. But with 72,000 people dead in the US convincing anyone who still wants lock-down that the virus isn't that deadly is an unnecessary uphill battle


r/LockdownSkepticism • • Nov 06 '23

Discussion Face masks ward off covid-19, so why are we still arguing about it?

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0 Upvotes

r/LockdownSkepticism • • May 03 '20

Discussion I believe states are reopening too soon, please change my mind.

10 Upvotes

Hi lockdown skeptics!

I'm really scared for everyone I know, even myself. I keep reading in my small state in New England stories of young healthy people that have died from covid and I look up these people and they aren't the type of people that would die from the flu, they are young and healthy although usually overweight. One person actually played football in highschool and was in his early 20's. I read the stories on r/covid19positive of people who are still sick for sometimes a month or longer and some people needing to be vented not just old people and it makes me sad what the world has become. I read all the studies and I try to look for as much good news as possible but I know a lot of it is bad science like the santa Clara study by Stanford that didn't take into account the accuracy of the test or the obvious bias in offering free antibody test through Facebook. I'm thinking the IFR is somewhere around .5%-1% and I think this is absolutely devastating. I also think that we are going about this the wrong way and we should be more strict on lockdowns as we get closer to herd immunity so we can wipe this virus out. Reff is a mix between how many people are already immune and social distancing measures. With enough people immune with the right social distance measures we can wipe this out without more people losing their lives then needed.

I really fear for my family's life that have preexisting conditions and my parents/grandparents. I want to not be scared anymore. I'm really scared of leaving the house and then getting the virus and then passing the virus to someone else. It makes me so sad to hear about everyone who dies.

I want this to end it makes me so sad for everyone please convince me that the world isn't on fire and we should go back to life as normal.

Edit: I think I'll try going back to work. I'm going ask if I could do it part time at first since I haven't really been leaving the house since this started. Thank you


r/LockdownSkepticism • • Aug 10 '20

Opinion Piece We Should be Pro Vaccine

12 Upvotes

I’ve recently been following news on the progress with Vaccine Development and things all appear to show a positive trend. The Secretary or Health and Human Services recently said that he’s optimistic that we could have millions of doses of a COVID-19 Vaccine by the end of this year and millions by the beginning of next year. Dr Fauci (controversial here I know) is optimistic that we will have a Vaccine by the end of the year and expects it to reach the American population by early 2021. Pfizer is hopeful of getting approval from the FDA by October and plans on delivering 100 million vaccines by December. It is currently the goal of the Trump administration to deliver 300 million doses of a safe, effective vaccine for COVID-19 by January 2021 according to Operation Warp Speed .

This should be good news to all of us. But yet when I look here and even among Lockdown Skeptics on Twitter all I see is pessimism regarding the vaccine. The FDA has already said that they won’t approve a Vaccine unless it’s at least 50% effective, which is about how effective the Flu vaccine is. I also understand that there are safety concerns, but the safety concerns from a vaccine are no worse than the safety concerns of keeping us locked down

Many of us may not want to accept it, but realistically there is going to be no real normalcy until there’s a vaccine. Several states like Illinois have admitted that they won’t get back to normal until a vaccine arrives, and this is ultimately going to be true everywhere. So I don’t get why it would make sense for us to oppose a vaccine. And to cast doubt on every sign of good news.

All indicators are pointing to a vaccine being widely available to the American public by January (300 million doses being available by January is the Federal Government’s Goal). While distribution of the vaccine is likely going to take some time, we could be looking at real normalcy again by February/March once enough people are vaccinated to establish Herd Immunity or whatever criteria that the Government sets to lift restrictions.

Once the vaccine becomes widely available not only should we be the first ones in line, but we should also be encouraging everyone to get vaccinated, even people who are skeptical. The more and faster we get people vaccinated, the quicker we can end this nightmare and get back to normal.

We absolutely should continue opposing Lockdown measures until then, but we all should be rooting for a vaccine to become widely available to the American Public by January. It’s looking like we’re in the final stretch of lockdowns, we’ve just got to hang on until the vaccine arrives


r/LockdownSkepticism • • Sep 26 '21

Opinion Piece No, Vaccinated People Are Not ‘Just as Likely’ to Spread the Coronavirus as Unvaccinated People

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0 Upvotes

r/LockdownSkepticism • • Jun 11 '20

Question Are we in denial? Is re-opening leading to more spread of the virus?

0 Upvotes

It's been a rough week as it looks like I'll be continuing to work from home indefinitely, which I REALLY don't want to do. I really enjoyed hanging with my coworkers and helping people in my day to day (it's a human service job), and I feel like working from home is so lonely and fruitless. It feels like fake work that I'm still obligated to do.

Anyway... that's putting me in a really negative mindset this week - particularly with all that stuff about Arizona, South Carolina, Utah, etc. I try to look at the data for those states, but they have pretty shitty "dashboards" compared to the Massachusetts dashboard (my state). (Say what you will about strict lockdown in MA, but they do have an excellent way of presenting the data in an extremely transparent and easy to navigate way - https://www.mass.gov/doc/covid-19-dashboard-june-11-2020/download)

Is the virus getting worse in those states? I know people say that AZ is citing the positive antibody tests but not the negative, but I don't see a truly reliable source on that. People quote that twitter account, Ethical Skeptic, but I don't know. I don't know what to believe anymore and I'm super disheartened and depressed.


r/LockdownSkepticism • • Jul 19 '20

Mental health

1 Upvotes

I thought this might be an important thing for some people to consider, if you’re anything like me.

There is a lot of anger on this sub. I won’t qualify it as righteous or unrighteous, but the fact of the matter is - we need to take care of ourselves. Every time I go on this sub, I’ve realized I have a bad day. The data is consistent. Every time. I wonder if anyone else is in that same position.

I agree with you all on a lot of things. But the reality is - we can only control so much. I haven’t changed my opinion on this stuff, but even so, I’m realizing that every day I don’t go on this sub (or on Reddit in general), I have a better day. I’m more at peace. I‘m likelier to have healthier habits. I’m likelier to exercise and meditate and to take care of myself in the ways that I have control over.

I think it should be a priority on this sub to support each other and to try to relax. That’s not to suggest that anyone here is wrong for how they feel. But we’re going to drive ourselves insane if we don’t let go.

Sort of an urgent calm. The serenity prayer. We have to take control of what we can, and try to be at peace with whatever hand we’re dealt. No matter how bad we have it now, there are people suffering worse.

For all the anger I’ve experienced in the last four months, I haven’t been nearly grateful enough to have food on the table at every meal, for example. Plenty of people would trade their problems to have that.


r/LockdownSkepticism • • Aug 06 '21

Opinion Piece I feel like we skeptics have been playing the fisherman and the fish.

2 Upvotes

Yes, mask mandates and other restrictions are coming back in a lot of the world, due to the Delta variant. However, in most places, actual lockdown is completely off the table.

We need to recognize that vaccines work, and have done a tremendous job of preventing us from needing to go any further than we have so far lately. If it weren't for the vaccines, we would've probably had universal mask mandates everywhere and lockdowns across much of the US as a result of Delta. And so we're sort of in a similar boat (no pun intended) to the fisherman and the fish if you know that story, in that we should be content with what we have and be grateful for our successes. We might not be 90% winning, but is that even possible? We're not 90% losing, that's for sure, and we should respect that. Otherwise, they might make it 90% losing!

There's often so much anti-vaccination rhetoric around here, and it's annoying. Because vaccines are doing a great job at preventing us from returning to lockdown. You can have whatever opinion you want about the vaccine distribution process, including vaccine passports et al, but to me, it's completely inappropriate to downplay the vaccines if you're a skeptic. This is LockdownSkepticism and not VaccineSkepticism, FFS!


r/LockdownSkepticism • • Jun 24 '22

Public Health CDC: Majority of Americans Should Be Wearing Masks Indoors or Considering it

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1 Upvotes

r/LockdownSkepticism • • Sep 28 '23

Opinion Piece Tired of COVID? Fine. But don’t shame the mask

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0 Upvotes

r/LockdownSkepticism • • May 15 '24

News Links COVID study: 800,000 deaths were prevented by social distancing

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0 Upvotes

r/LockdownSkepticism • • Jan 06 '24

Public Health Analysis: 'Pandemic is far from over,' expert says as new variant spurs major COVID resurgence

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1 Upvotes

r/LockdownSkepticism • • Jul 02 '22

News Links 'I held on to him until his heartbeat came to zero,' says father of toddler who died of Covid-19

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0 Upvotes

r/LockdownSkepticism • • Jul 02 '20

Opinion Piece the punching down on service workers in this sub is hilarious and sad

5 Upvotes

look, we all feel relatively the same about lockdown. it's bogus and exposes our authoritarian governments.

But every third comment I see is just dunking on service workers for making more on unemployment than they do at their jobs. This is hella stupid.

I went to an Ivy League school, and for various reasons and struggles found myself working in the service industry the better part of the last five years. A lot of you seem to have forgotten what it's like to work for wage/tips, or never had to to begin with. It fucking sucks and in many ways feels like a lockdown all the fucking time. You can never get ahead and have to have all sorts of extra hustle. I'm not against working to better your situation (and am doing it myself), but maybe we should lift the cogs of our capitalist machine out of wage slavery during AND after this pandemic.

I was laid off and didn't receive unemployment for some time. I had to sell a bunch of shit I didn't want to cuz paycheck to paycheck dried up. Rent is a sizeable % of my income. Unemployment finally came and it was good, and was able to save, tie up loose ends, etc. But LOTS of people never received unemployment OR stimulus, or both. And stimulus was only 1x LOL

I busted my ass for the last 5 years mopping, sweeping, cooking in a grungy basement for rich people above my head 10 hours a day, not getting ahead. This economy has failed our generation. You damn right I'm going to take every fucking penny of unemployment when the FED and congress created a V shaped recovery in the stock market and S+P500 is higher than at any point prior to late 2019. Insider trading in congress is rampant, the rich and billionaire class got insanely richer, and we're giving 100mil to the fucking kennedy center.

I know this sub leans libertarian etc. but have some fucking respect. Fight the right target, the fed money printers and those that assist them. THEY caused massive inequality (and the 08 crisis with NO VIRUS just econ bullshit). Get mad at the six figure work from home lockdown bros, postmating 3x a day. Get mad at Pelosi and Bitch McConnell. Not servers and cooks.

Ironically I was able to save $ and have been learning to day trade BTC so it's likely I'll come out of this wealthier than before, all for learning the stupid skill of reading charts on a computer screen and adding less value to the world that I did when I cooked for people. I can't help but think of my brothers and sisters who just don't have the hustle I do, and will return to wage slavery. Think of them next time you punch down.


r/LockdownSkepticism • • Oct 30 '23

News Links New evidence confirms COVID-19 vaccines are overwhelmingly safe

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0 Upvotes

r/LockdownSkepticism • • Jan 09 '22

Discussion Australia vs. Djokovic is brilliantly exposing how farcical vaccine mandates are

564 Upvotes

For those who aren't aware, one of the top tennis players in the world was recently denied entry at the Australian border and is currently waiting trial at a quarantine hotel:

Tennis star Novak Djokovic had a vaccine exemption to enter Australia after a Covid infection on 16 December, his lawyers say in court documents. Djokovic was denied entry to Australia after landing in Melbourne this week to play in the Australian Open. The world's top ranked tennis player is currently in an immigration detention centre ahead of a court case on Monday.

The idea that a prior infection is equivalent to a vaccination was so outrageous that Border authorities actually tracked down a tennis player who was already (!) in the country with a similar exemption and deported her:

Czech tennis player Renata Voráčová has been deported after her visa was cancelled by the Australian Border Force. Voráčová, who had already played in a warm-up tournament in Melbourne, was held in the same immigration hotel as Serbian star Novak Djokovic after she was detained by Australian Border Force (ABF) officials on Thursday. She is believed to have entered Australia last month with a vaccine exemption granted by Tennis Australia because she had recently contracted and recovered from COVID-19.

So lets take a look at the facts:

  1. There's currently tens of thousands of COVID cases in Australia every single day

  2. Australia has some of the highest vaccination rates in the world, with around 95% of adults in Sydney having at least one shot. So the vast majority of those infected in Australia are fully vaccinated.

  3. Our best data is showing that the vaccine is barely useful against infection with Omicron, which isn't surprising given that it was designed for the original COVID strain.

  4. Djokovic already had COVID twice - once in June 2020 and once in December. He won a major tennis tournament just two months after testing positive and is still one of the top players in the world. So absolutely no signs of Long COVID for him - literally zero impact on performance.

  5. Djokovic is coming to play in a major tennis tournament just three weeks after another positive test. Think about it - this virus is so dangerous that you can recover and go back to world class games three weeks after testing positive.

  6. We have excellent data proving that natural immunity is highly protective against future hospitalization. Not that we really needed such research given what we know about the human immune system, but its a very strong piece of data.

So in other words... Australian immigration is trying to prevent a person from entering the country because he never got a vaccine that has no impact on transmission rates, while the country itself is seeing some of the highest infection rates in the world. And absolutely no one is willing to admit that natural immunity is real and protects Djokovic better than any of the current vaccines ever could.

The French President said it best - the only purpose of mandates at this point is to annoy the unvaccinated. There's no other logic behind them.


r/LockdownSkepticism • • Jun 05 '25

Public Health Commentary: Study finds removing school mask mandates contributed to 22,000 U.S. COVID deaths in a year

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0 Upvotes

r/LockdownSkepticism • • Jan 16 '22

Public Health COVID passes: they can't prevent every infection but do make events safer

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3 Upvotes

r/LockdownSkepticism • • Sep 09 '20

COVID-19 / On the Virus Sturgis was the news yesterday..... new article.. No, the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally Didn't Spawn 250,000 Coronavirus Cases

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83 Upvotes

r/LockdownSkepticism • • Nov 28 '21

Discussion I created a new community for people like me who are Pro Vaccine/Anti-lockdown.

0 Upvotes

r/Provaxantilockdown

Feel free to join up if y’all feel like it.


r/LockdownSkepticism • • May 25 '22

Public Health More than 1 in 5 adult Covid survivors in the U.S. may develop long Covid, a C.D.C. study suggests.

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0 Upvotes