I've been following the recent surge in news about major institutions adding Bitcoin to their balance sheets, and it's got me thinking. Could this be the tipping point we've been waiting for? It seems like every day, another big player announces their investment in BTC.

With this trend gaining momentum, I can't help but wonder if we're on the brink of a historic shift. Imagine a world where every major corporation holds Bitcoin. And let's not forget about the upcoming supply shock from the halving.

I'm bullish on Bitcoin, to say the least. Personally, I wouldn't be surprised to see BTC surpass $300,000 in the near future. But I'm curious to hear what you all think. Are we truly on the verge of a Bitcoin boom, or am I just getting ahead of myself?

To all saying, "meh, just another correction". This is the second largest correction in the history of modern Bitcoin (since 2012ish)... Either this needs to turn around very hard and fast (this week) or it could take many months or years to recover similar to 2013 (assuming there isn't something very wrong with the crypto market we aren't yet privy to). Just my 2 cents. Trying to provide a little value in a sea of confusion. We should be rooting like hell for a hard bounce right here...

Written at $9500/bitcoin

All credit for these charts goes to a user named 'Livermore' on Bitcointalk.

The chart in question: http://imgur.com/RCBFENH

Here's what he had to say regarding it:

"New analysis, this time monthly chart with the 2000's Yahoo bubble. In this view the entire move of BTC from $5 to $1200 was one massive bubble in three parts, not three bubbles.

This fractal supports Scen B: Bottom at $90.  

AO supports B and C.
Fisher supports B and C.
Aroon supports B.  

Very bullish if price breaks above $330, the 10month (30 week, 200day) EMA, scenario B and C become very unlikely. Otherwise its current destiny is down down down to $90 for a capitulation bottom. We shall see.

My suggestion: Current portfolio 70%BTC 30%Fiat. If price breaks under 210, all out and rebuy at $90 (Scen B playing with possible Scen C continuation). If price breaks above $330, all in (Scen A playing).

Now I personally disagree that we are in danger of a move to $100, simply based on overwhelming positive news and bearwhale buy walls. It seems insane that the price is even still in the $200's with current sentiment, but I've seen more ridiculous things in my time.

I also went on to predict a crash after the new $40,000 peak back to around $6,000.

See the original thread here:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1052507.0

http://bitcoinpricelive.com/bitcoin-etf-5-reasons-the-winklevoss-bitcoin-etf-will-send-bitcoin-to-10000/

The Winklevoss Bitcoin ETF is set to go online at the end of 2014. You might remember the Winklevoss twin brothers from the movie The Social Network where they sued Mark Zuckerburg and Facebook to win 50 million dollars. Since then the twins have moved on to start a Bitcoin ETF named the Winklevoss Bitcoin Trust. Once it begins trading, expect the price of Bitcoin to soar to over $10,000.

Here’s 5 reasons why:

1. Wall Street Money Will Flow Into The Bitcoin ETF. As soon as a person can go to their brokerage account, type in the symbol COIN and buy now, it will put upwards pressure on the price of Bitcoin. There are many wealthy investors who would like to get into Bitcoin but they feel uncomfortable that Bitcoin is not in their name, that they need to backup a wallet, and they need to keep their computer virus free. The Winklevoss ETF will allow the average wealthy investor who is a not technology expert to put large amounts of money into Bitcoin.

2. The Winklevoss ETF will be promoted as currency diversification on Wall Street Bitcoin is already being regarded by Wall Street as a new currency. The US dollar, Euro, and Yen have been undermined as a store of value. It will be advertised to clients as a high risk, high reward alternative currency.

3. Trading of the ETF will only be open during stock market hours The COIN ETF can only be bought or sold during the NASDAQ market is open in the United States. This means that the Wall Street investor will only be able to access Bitcoin trading from 9:30 AM EST to 4:30 PM. During this time period, there will be increased volume and more news released about Bitcoin. In the downtime there will be massive speculation about where the Bitcoin ETF will open and for what price. There will be discrepancies of the price between Bitcoin exchanges and the Bitcoin ETF.

4. Liquidity in Bitcoin markets will increase dramatically. There will be many more Bitcoins trading hands on a daily basis as the Bitcoin ETF will be required to allow shorting as well. This means that investors can bet that Bitcoin will go down as well. When the Bitcoin ETF opens, it will be much easier for Bitcoin Bears to bet that the price will go down. However, this is good for the price of Bitcoin as it will allow investors to bet both sides of the Bitcoin, increasing Bitcoin transactions

5. The Bitcoin ETF is required to buy additional Bitcoins Details of the Winklevoss ETF reveal that as more money flows into their trust, they are required to buy Bitcoins. Since the supply of Bitcoins is limited, this means they will have to buy from exchanges or over the counter purchases. Recently, the Winklevoss Twins announced they would pay in Bitcoin to go to space via Richard Branson’s Virgin Galatic.

Expect the price of Bitcoin to go space as well!

People akin to shoe shiners are giving crypto advice in the streets now.

Media talking about crypto daily.

People putting in more than they can afford to lose without even knowing what long and short orders mean.

No more natural "growth", rise is going parabolic now.

What comes up, must come down.

"New paradigm" delusions setting in such as "w-w-wwhat if this is new tech growth and not stock growth!?"

Mania, delusions, media attention are at full swing.

First there will be a minor 30% crash and people will be like "oh, well, that is Bitcoin for ya' huh" and then the market will "return to normal", then sweaty baggies will realise that this is all a mirage and just drop their bags to normie millenial laggards who think they are "early adopters" despite buying BTC in 4 or 5 digits.

That is when the reality sets in and we return to the actual worth of a digital bean aka today's price - 95% correction.

Remember, it is not a proper Bitcoin crash until people are killing themselves. If people accept the crash as "normal correction" it is not a proper crash yet. A proper crash makes you reconsider your life. A proper crash makes millennials jump on the train tracks. We aren't in that phase yet. And when we will be - then you just buy low.

...yet. Long term, it very much can, but simple adoption will not increase demand.

Here's the thing... No one knows if this is going to work. This is a test... an experiment with bitcoin. No one has ever tried it before. Keep in mind that if everything else stays equal, Overstock gains 2-3% not paid in transaction fees to credit card companies. That's 2-3% pure profit.

It has posed no new benefits to the consumer though. Those of us in the community know that there are benefits, but that doesn't matter. The average person is seeing no benefit whatsoever.

The best we can hope for is that a lot of sales go through Overstock because of bitcoin. From there, bitcoin needs a competitive advantage in the marketplace... something that it simply doesn't have yet.

Yes, bitcoin is decentralized, secure, nearly free to transfer any amount of money, etc. etc. But none of that applies to buying and selling things... which is one of the keys of being a currency.

The biggest thing that bitcoin can hope for is retailers offering discounts for buying things with bitcoin. Overstock, for example, would need to take that 2-3% savings from credit card transactions, and allow you to shave that off the price. THAT is the competitive advantage bitcoin needs to grow. That will increase demand drastically. If all of the sudden people can simply pay with a different method and save X% off of everything, then that's a big deal, especially for big ticket items. Demand would grow, and the price would grow with it.

The not needing personal information is great and all, but it's not enough of an advantage. The monetary savings would be an excellent way. Even if the difference was split 50/50 between extra profit for the retailer and the consumer, that's a win-win on both sides. You're cutting out the third-party, which is incredibly powerful.

I think that's what will be the catalyst for a "to the moon" type of rise that people are talking about. Once bitcoin has a clearly identifiable competitive advantage, like saving X% on any purchase, then it will truly begin a meteoric rise.

EDIT: I can't edit the C in the title... sorry!

Reason: The stair pattern continues. Sharp down-movements alternate with slow up-movements. After each sharp down movement a new low is reached. This is the pattern we have seen the last months. Typically, a period of slow up-movements takes 7-10 days, roughly, and every time people say that now we've reached the bottom. So very likely we'll see another sharp down-movement in the next few days. This will lead us in the range of around 5300-5500 USD. And then it starts over. In August we'll see sub $5000 prices. Expect this to continue for a while.

Edit: Latest trends indicate $5700 by Wednesday/Thursday.

Edit: The reactions incl. voting behaviour in this thread show more than clear where the wind blows. People feel attacked by my non-bullish price projection and "fight back" (although I did not fight in the first place) quickly and intensely. As if they can influence the price by "talking it up". And probably they really think they can. All this means there is still much too much "hope" in the market, and I am 90% sure that the bubble has still much too much air inside. Based on this experience about actual market sentiment now my price expectation is even lower than what is was when I made this post. Now I think the bottom is definitely below 4k, well possible below 3k. (edit: and even below year 2013's ATH wouldn't surprise me, if this is what it takes to make the market really desperate)

PS: Interesting that people think they can manipulate the price via a reddit post or comment.

PPS: Interesting to see all the emotional and angry replies, as if it is my fault that Bitcoin prices fall. So many emotions. They are looking for someone guilty. I am certainly the last to blame that Bitcoin price falls, but they seem very nervous. Quite interesting.

Ever since Bitcoin bottomed at $6,000 it has been climbing continuously — reaching $11,700 before coming down to $10,600 where it is currently trading. Although that’s a ten percent correction I believe we need to see BTC test the $9,000 level before it can have a sustained move higher.

I see Bitcoin’s move below $11,000 as a good sign for investors. If it had not come down from that level we could have started to see panic buying similar to that of Thanksgiving. Sure, this would have generated some nice short term gains but it would’ve been at the cost of long term growth.

Let me know below what your opinions are regarding where you think the crypto currency is headed!

Edit: Here is my prediction https://ibb.co/bx4Oxc

i dont usually ask for advice but im kinda having a nervous break down and could use some advie i thought it was a sure bet seeing ath in btc but now im not so sure i have been seeing some ideas rolling aroud on tradingview for shorts but more longs

please help

please dont troll me

im sick currently haveing a nervouse break down please be nice

Welcome to the /r/BitcoinMarkets daily discussion thread!

Thread topics include, but are not limited to:

• General discussion related to the days events

• Technical analysis

• Trading ideas & strategies

• Questions that do not warrant a separate post

Thread Guidelines

• Be excellent to each other.

• Please do not create separate posts for the types of discussion mentioned above outside of the daily thread. If you do, your post may be removed and/or heavily downvoted.

• News that may have a big impact on the market may be posted as a separate thread.

Other ways to interact

• Live chat on BitcoinMarkets IRC

• Set your flair to participate in the BitcoinMarkets Flair Game (view current standings)

12,860,000 bitcoins have been mined. At any time you can look up exactly how many bitcoin have been created.

At the same time, over 7 million bitcoin have never moved since they were mined. (and more have not been moved in years) Many of them are lost, some permanently. But no one knows how many. Meaning there is really somewhere between 5 and 12 million bitcoins. A large spread of possibilities!

With such uncertainty how will it be possible for any large market to emerge?

What kind of economy will exist where at any time some long lost address can say "surprise, I had 45,000 bitcoins all along but forgot!" doing the math, if bitcoin replaced just america's economy each person would have .03 coins each, a find like that would be an unfathomable time bomb.

Even measuring the health of the economy becomes impossible. The "market cap" of bitcoin is commonly measured given all coins that ever existed, but realistically with no information it's impossible to say how much money actually exists.

Every currency has some slack, some amount of dollar bills exist unaccounted for. A normal currency would measure this as being 1 or 2% of the total economy. With bitcoin it's nearly impossible to tell and could be up to like 70% of the economy.

This seems like a truly major problem with bitcoin.

I created this graph using the projected growth of Bitcoin based on the observed exponential growth over the last 3.5 years. It is the accumulated value of a Bitcoin account where an investor buys 100 dollars worth of Bitcoin every month (that is less and less Bitcoin per transaction every time because the value grows up relative to USD). Still over a period of time on the scale of the current history of Bitcoin (3.5 years) you could retire with $ 1 million in your account.

Here the graph of the projected savings:

http://i.imgur.com/CaSosKR.png

and here a graph of the historical exponential growth:

http://i.imgur.com/ACE2Kdu.jpg

Until recently, I was pretty deeply in permabull mode. My assumption was that is was mostly safe to leave my money in bitcoins, because as long as nothing drastic happened like a catastrophic exploit that compromised Bitcoin's core protocol, the price would continue to trend upward over the long term. I no longer believe this to be the case. Here's why.

Bitcoin's model of doing things really hinges on two factors in order to be successful. One is that the Bitcoin protocol can accurately determine who owns how many bitcoins at which time. I see no immediate danger of this aspect of bitcoin being compromised. The second factor is that bitcoin maintains a model of artificial scarcity. In other words, that the bitcoin protocol limits how many bitcoins can exist at any given time. This is where I think we are starting to run into problems.

When altcoins initially hit the scene, there was some concern that they may devalue bitcoins, as they would compete with bitcoin and dilute the marketplace. This didn't immediately happen for two reasons. First, bitcoin had the name recognition, and an established reputation for rapidly increasing in value. Second, it was initially difficult to exchange altcoins for USD directly, so you had to buy bitcoins to use as an intermediary. Neither one of these things is true anymore. Altcoins such as Litecoin and Dogecoin have achieved a notable amount of publicity, attracting a number of spectators in the process, and many exchanges exist where you can trade altcoins directly for USD.

But of course, this is hardly news. Altcoins have been growing in popularity for a while now, why should now be the time to start worrying? Bitcoin's growth up until this point has followed a very predictable cycle of bubble and bust. Investors flock to bitcoin when they see the price going up, and then they panic sell the second it starts to go down. This works as long as each bubble manages to peak higher than the last, because a certain amount of people will continue to hold bitcoins under the assumption that they are better off waiting for the next bubble than they are trying to play the market. Were this not true, the value of bitcoin would continue to decline until it approached zero.

So how do altcoins fit into this picture? There are only two reasons why bitcoin is worth so much more than other coins. One is that it got here first. It still has the most mainstream name recognition out of any coin, and that means it is the most likely coin for a new cryto investor to target. This isn't going to change any time soon, but as long as bitcoin continues to trend downward in the short term, it will have an increasingly difficult time finding buyers. The second reason, is that bitcoin is still the best coin to actually buy things with by far. No other coin can be exchanged for goods and services at anywhere near as many locations as bitcoin can. But there is no technical reason for this to be the case. The main reason I think people don't accept altcoins is that they don't trust them. Bitcoin, as volatile as it has been, has managed to maintain the perception that it is commodity capable of holding value over the long term. Whether or not this perception is justified, it does exist. But if this perception were to change, there would be no reason for merchants to accept bitcoins over any other coin.

Bitcoin cannot maintain it's value against this kind of pressure. It is a technically inferior coin whose only real advantage is that it got here first. As altcoins continue to find footholds in the marketplace, Bitcoin will struggle more and more to maintain it's lead. The hype bubbles will get smaller, but so will the busts, and it will gradually decline in value until it reaches parity with the leading altcoins. Now I don't necessarily think this spells doom for Bitcoin, but I do believe that Bitcoin's days of predictably increasing in value are over. The price of Bitcoin is currently well under 50% of it's peak value, and I still don't really think we've seen the floor. The longer this condition persists, the greater the damage will be to Bitcoin's brand, and the more likely it will be for altcoins to gain ground against it.

However I actually think this increased diversity in the crypto marketplace will be good in the long run. Once the initial shock wears off from people realizing bitcoin can never, and will never be worth $1000 again, we will finally put an end to senseless speculation. Instead, the crypto marketplace will be split among around 3-10 leading types of coins (and a number of other fringe/specialty coins) that will increase in value at a much more gradual and measured rate. The will of course still be an omnipresent bubble/bust pattern, but on a much smaller scale. Although, to be honest I think the possibility does exist for one final huge hype bubble before this condition takes hold, so it may not be time to cash out quite yet...

http://i.imgur.com/1vOUpms.png

(fyi: line hits 100 USD end of Feb 2016)

Update 25 May 2015: Will it go down (2) like it did in March (1)? (http://i.imgur.com/i59xMnN.png)

Update 2 June 2015: Answer is "yes": We are back in the downtrend line: http://i.imgur.com/alo2Jma.png. Next: Breaking $200 in July at latest.

Update 25 August 2015: Greek Mini-Bubble over, back in downtrend line soon, seeing 170USD: http://i.imgur.com/saYQRXk.png

Some celestial gravel has been thrown down under our slipping wheels

Apologies to those of you in short positions at this time.

So I recently had this, very interesting discussion with u/Nothink. He posted this log chart which shows that the entire crypto market cap is in a large descending channel.

It also shows that the top of the descending channel for the entire crypto marketcap is intersecting with a long term ascending trendline. This suggests that we are reaching a critical point. Either the total crypto market cap will break our ascending trendline that we have followed for years or we will continue down our descending channel.

We should not trust the crypto marketcap to continue to follow the ascending trendline. I've extended the trendlines from u/Nothink's chart out and this is what we find.

In order for crypto to maintain the market cap growth shown on the ascending trendline, then we will have to have a minimum total market cap by July comparable to the market cap in in late October 2017. To put that in perspective, bitcoin's price was above 6k in late October. And that's just three months from now.

Furthermore, in order to continue to maintain that trendline, the total crypto market cap has to have a comparable market cap by January 1st, 2020, to the market cap we had at the end of November, when we were in full bull run mode. And that is the minimum market cap necessary just to maintain our current logarithmic trend on the crypto market cap.

Thus, if you believe the long term market market cap trendline will hold, you are basically making a bet. You are betting that by the end of the year, market conditions for crypto will be similar to market conditions (ie, a giant speculative bull run) in the 4th quarter of 2017. It is obvious that this will not happen. This is not March of 2017, this is March of 2019 and I would hope some people here can recognize the difference.

Retail got massively burned at the end of 2017, and more people got burned at the end of 2018. Furthermore, it may take a very long time for institutions to even start going into crypto in large numbers, just look at how many times bakkt has been delayed. It is very unlikely that we will have a bull run comparable in intensity to the bull run of 2017 in 9 months. Thus, it is a good bet that the ascending trendline will break and the upper channel of our descending channel will hold.

This bet, by the way, is identical to a bet I made five months ago when we were at 6k. We were faced with a similar ascending trendline on the logramithic price chart, that showed the price being at 20K by the end of 2019. I argued that it was a good bet that we would not have another bull run by the end of the year because retail had to recover, and thus, we had to break down from that trendline.

The bet behind us dumping by mid-April is literally identical to the logic of that 6k breakdown prediction, and that prediction worked out pretty well. You have literally seen this movie before.

One more thing. Let's just say we do dump in early April. Assuming we respect the descending channel we are in, and we bounce off the lower trendline of that channel, then by late April/early May, we should have a market cap that is about half the market cap we have now.

If bitcoin follows the market cap and dumps by half its price, that should give us a price in the upper 1ks around 1900 dollars. I have argued several times in this sub that bitcoin is likely to test the long term moving averages like the 400 or 450 weekly ma's before the bear market is over. This is because have tested longer term moving averages in previous bear markets.

If bitcoin follows the total crypto market cap, the we will dump to levels that will allow us to test those moving averages. Thus, betting that the crypto, and thus, bitcoin's, market cap will dump soon not only makes sense from a market cap trendline perspective, it also makes sense from an historical analysis of the moving averages.

TL;DR: If you bet that the long term crypto market cap trendline will hold, you are betting that we will have another crypto bull run within the next 9 months. Do you really want to make that bet?

Edit:. I’m getting a lot of flack for using the total crypto market cap instead of the total bitcoin market cap. However, if you look at the total bitcoin market cap on log view, you come to the same conclusion.

Total bitcoin market cap: https://www.tradingview.com/x/u4SNEQRh/

And zoomed in: https://www.tradingview.com/x/SmMwkzC2/

Edit 2: I didn’t want to comment on sentiment, but someone has to say this. The comments below do not look like they’re from the despair phase of the market cycle.

The bitcoin price is headed for the stratosphere. The bitcoin forecasts have been pouring in from seasoned investors and strategists like Tim Draper and Thomas Lee, each with a bullish price attached. Now Brian Kelly, founder and CEO of digital assets investment fund BKCM LLC, is joining the chorus, suggesting that bitcoin could set a new record in the short-term.

Kelly predicts that with a resurgence in bitcoin transaction volumes, “there’s no reason” why the bitcoin price couldn’t not only revisit the $20,000 level but attain a new high of $25,000 by year-end, according to an interview with CNBC.

He also said that Draper’s forecast calling for $250,000 BTC by 2022 isn’t out of this world, adding that it would reflect a 3,000% gain over a four-year period. While that might “sound crazy,” he said, it’s not unprecedented, given the 4,000% return that bitcoin’s generated in the past couple of years.

/u/BTCHarbringer posted the below chart the other day titled "the long road to $600" suggesting we are ranging and should break $600 within days

https://i.imgur.com/R1ecj6F.jpg

I decided to follow up on his trendlines now that all the EMA's down to the 4H have crosses and would appear for all intents and purposes support is slipping and the trend is broken.

http://i.imgur.com/OoKcjDX.png

Discuss?

It's a slow day in the market, and so I was reflecting on my bitcoin history. Thought I'd share my humble tale.

I had initially discovered BTC in 2011 and bought 3 coins for $50 total and mined a few mBits a day on my GPU for several months. I hodled before it was a thing, and stopped caring when the price dipped under $10. My GPU went back to working for BOINC, folding proteins, sifting SETI data. I nearly forgot about bitcoin... ah those days. Anyone have a time machine?

Then the April bubble grew and popped catching my bitcoin attention once again. My coins grew in value to what seemed at the time an unbelievable level, all while I had no idea. Salivating, I blindly traded myself up into quite a few more coins over the summer, and lost some, yet still maintained a healthy positive balance. "Hell, why didn't I set up an array of GPUs like that guy I saw in youtube!?" My hastily bought jalapenos finally shipped and I mined a few more meager mBits. Most of my coins were on Gox and CampBX where I would buy new coins directly. I eventually left CampBX and fully returned to Gox for the trading volume.

When the December bubble cracked, I traded myself into more coins with some novice skill not without a minor blunder or two. As January 2014 rolled in the warning signs at Gox started to become more apparent. For several months people had been mumbling about problems at Gox but I largely ignored them. When the price began diverging, greed blinded me from the reality that something must terribly wrong at Gox. I was simply more excited that my Gox coins were worth more than everywhere else!

1 year ago I was at a rodeo of all places, and the price was climbing, chiming alerts on my phone as horses and cows ran about in the dirt. I got the ugly sensation that such a rise in price on Gox was artificial. Things reeked and it wasn't the manure.

And so upon getting home I researched other exchanges, made an account at Bitstamp, withdrew from Gox, and ate what felt like an enormous paper loss in doing so. But I felt safe. It was possibly the first rational un-greed-cluttered decision I made with bitcoin. Sure enough only weeks later... well you all know what happened next.

I was not lucky to get out of Gox, I made a careful rational decision about risk. I had stupidly ignored the warning signs for months until the very last days. On paper I lost a lot of unrealized gains in the move to stamp, but the Gox value was obviously not true.

I know many of you did not escape Gox, either partially or entirely. I could have been one of you too if I had not stopped to rationally consider the state of things 1 year ago today. Be aware of what is going on if you can. Have back up plans for your coins and money. I feel those scars Gox left are still lingering about here in our bear market today. It may be that we all goxxed ourselves last year. Let us be 'gentlemen'. Let's build this thing together and not destroy it by acting foolishly with blind greed.

tl;dr: escaping gox was neither luck nor chance, but a rational choice about risk and dealing with greed.

Have they ever heard of ETH? LTC? ZEC? XMR? The upcoming BTC forks?

Do they know that Jan 1st is coming?

What degree of cognitive dissonance is needed to support BCH but defame upcoming BTC forks providing increased utility & technical improvements?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-11-13/mysterious-bitcoin-dip-buyer-identified

Forgive me if this is unwelcome, but I see regularly these days people screaming/demanding "Log!" at inappropriate times when charts are posted around here.

I believe there exists a degree of (mathematically ignorant) groupthink here, that treats Logarithmic charts as something quasi-mystically superior to Linear. As if they're intrinsically better, purer and truer for some nonspecified magical reason.

This is wrong. There's a place for log, and a place for linear. Don't get sucked into thinking you need it when you don't.

Here's a handy guide. In almost all cases, it really is this simple:

When to use Log scale:

Whenever the lowest price and highest price in the date range are different by more than a factor of ten, use Log scale.

Like here.

When not to use log scale:

For any chart where the lowest price and highest price in the date range are less than a factor of ten apart, use Linear.

Specifically, all charts that cover only the last bubble up to now ($1100-$300) should be in Linear only.

Like here.

Just because whatever bullish/bearish lines you're trying to get to converge to back your theory don't work in Linear, isn't a reason to go to Log unless the above points are true.

The chosen price range in your charts is either logarithmic or it's not - it's not down to personal taste.

Needed to be said, I felt.

Edit: I learnt a lot from the responses here. Thanks everyone. It seems I was partly mistaken, and you've shown me why. As they say: the best way to get the correct answer on the internet is to post the wrong one!

I see this as a bearish flag/accumulation. I think it will drop about the width of the flag. I don’t see it as big a drop as mid-May, but I think we’ll see $28-27k in the next few days. Maybe lower, maybe sooner. We were at $41k 4-days ago, at $35k now. It doesn’t really have to “crash” to get there.

Chart: https://twitter.com/DU09BTC/status/1392870099812421634

Bitcoin has tanked 13% yesterday on the news that Elon Musk is discontinuing BTC payments for Tesla cars due to environment concerns... really? When they enabled this featured they did not know BTC is mined using electricity from... all sources?

Goes to show Elon did no due diligence. Or perhaps he just wants some cheap Bitcoin to accumulate?

Either way, price action is not looking that good for Bitcoin and one quick look at the BTC Dominance chart is all you need to do to realize we're not particularly bullish .

My bias for the short/medium term is somewhat bearish , however long term I remain bullish so long we don't fall under the 200 Moving Average (the line in blue).

Why am I bearish in the nearby future?

1. We broke BELOW the 50 (yellow line) and 100 (green line) Moving Averages on daily. So long we cannot recover or push above these levels, it's hard to be bullish .

2. Do I see right? A lower high and a lower low??? See yellow arrows, this is a bearish signal. This is quite a reversal from a bullish trend that has higher lows and higher highs... Another lower low or lower high and we will be in trouble as the trend may reverse, at least in the medium term.

3. Daily indicators are flat (no trend here), however, on weekly timeframe , the indicators and particularly MACD is picking up speed and expanding downwards... this is quite bearish and will require some serious buy pressure and pump to reverse it.

Any good news?

For now the $48k support level is holding, however we're forming a descending triangle (in blue) and if we re-test this support again and again we're likely to break down and fall towards $41k or around the 200 Moving Average in blue. That better hold, otherwise...

Otherwise, we may get a 2013 scenario with a double top . This may be our first top at $60k followed by a sharp correction exceeding 40% and then another massive pump will take place taking us to >$100k. But that is speculation. We just have to wait and see. I'd be surprised if the bull market ends here.

Alts and particularly ETH are still pumping hard, without much concern for BTC . Perhaps the alt party has to stop before BTC pumps again. Time will tell.

Where is your buy order set? Let me know. :)